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And the Oscar® goes to...

The time for the Oscars® has come again: Here in CupoNation we examined why saving on budget actually increases a movie's chances of winning, and what else makes an Oscar® winner. Which nominee is most likely to win based on our criteria?

Our study is based on data for all Oscar® winners from 1928 to 2015, and takes 5 factors into account.

THE OSCAR® WILL GO TO A
PRODUCTION THAT HAD A BUDGET AROUND 46M$

Oscar® winners' average budget is $46m., almost 7 times less than the most expensive Oscar® (Titanic in 1997 with a budget of $300m.)
  •  
    DRAMA MOST LIKELY TO WIN

    • la la land (+ Romance)
    • Lion
    • Moonlight
    • Hell or High Water
    • Hidden Figures
    • Fences
    • Manchester by the Sea
    • Hacksaw Ridge
    • Arrival
Drama is scoring higher than any other category with a stunning 93% of winners falling under the drama category.
  •  
    MALE LEAD TRIPLES THE CHANCE TO WIN

    • Arrival
    • Lion
    • Moonlight
    • Hell or High Water
    • Fences
    • Manchester by the Sea
    • Hacksaw Ridge
    • la la land
    • Hidden Figures
  • THE OSCAR® WILL GO TO A
    3 WORD-LONG TITLED MOVIE

    • la la land
    • Arrival
    • Lion
    • Moonlight
    • Hell or High Water
    • Hidden Figures
    • Fences
    • Manchester by the Sea
    • Hacksaw Ridge
Only one movie with a title longer than 7 words has won so far: "The Lord of The Rings: The Return of the King" in 2013.
THE OSCAR® WILL GO TO A
MOVIE THAT LASTS AROUND 138 MIN

The average time of an Oscar® winning movie is 138 minutes. We are considering the 4 nominees closer to it as the most likely to win this year.
  • AND THE WINNER IS
    THE MOVIE THAT MATCHES THE MOST REQUIREMENTS

    • 4/5 la la land
    • 4/5 Hacksaw Ridge
    • 3/5 Fences
    • 3/5 Manchester by the Sea
    • 2/5 Arrival
    • 2/5 Lion
    • 2/5 Moonlight
    • 2/5 Hell or High Water
    • 1/5 Hidden Figures
With La La Land and Hacksaw Ridge both meeting 4 out of 5 requirements, we consider La La Land as more likely to win, as it has two winning genre categories (Drama and Romance), while Hacksaw Ridge only one (Drama).